The six key states to decide the next US president
You may wonder what’s the deal with these six states and why experts say that the 2024 presidential race will likely come down to them.
If a party won a state over the last two presidential elections, it’s deemed as being the “likely” winner next year. After the 2020 election and census, the likely red states offer 209 electoral votes, including Florida, Ohio, and Texas. Democrats have 232 votes from likely blue states. Therefore, with a total of 538 electoral votes—the rest of 87 are battleground votes spread across sic states.
This being said, let’s take a look at those six states that will decide who becomes the next US president. We’ll start with the most likely to be named the “mother of all battlegrounds,” even though it was pretty “red” over the last three presidential elections.
North Carolina
The 2020 census increased the state’s electoral votes from 15 to 16. Its population and economic growth supplement the voter rolls with young, educated, and skilled residents who tend to be more progressive and racially diverse. At the same time, seniors migrating from midwestern and northern states provide some balance.
North Carolina’s solid movement from solid red began in 2008, when Sen. Barack Obama won over Sen. John McCain by 0.3% points. Then from 2012 to 2020, the state reverted to red, but it was always close. For example, in 2016, Trump won by 3.6%, while his 2020 win was by only 1.3%.
Considering the Republican Party’s narrow electoral path in 2024, North Carolina isn’t just one of the states that will decide who becomes the next US president; it’s also a “must-win”—a status once granted to Florida and Ohio.
Georgia
The GEO’s unexpected loss of the state’s 16 electoral votes in 2020 ensures that the next Republican nominee will become one with Georgians. In 2016, the former president won by 5.2% points, only to lose by 0.2% in 2020. The question is, was it Trump or a general trend toward blue?
What is certain is that Georgia is one of the key states that will decide who becomes the next US president.
Arizona
Similar to Georgia, this is another 2020 red-to-blue shocker that’s either just a one-off or a blue presidential trend. As far as the electoral math equation goes, the GOP must win back Arizona’s 11 electoral votes that Donald Trump lost by 0.3% after winning in 2016 by 3.6%.
While this is one of the states that could determine who the next US president will be, it’s not a must-win for Democrats because of the next thing that follows.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan
Since 1992, the three “blue wall” states have voted in unison. Together, they have 44 electoral votes, down from 46 in 2020, as Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one vote. In 2016, the surprise came when Trump won all three states, giving him a total of 270.
Here are Biden and Trump’s percentage-point margins of victory: Pennsylvania 2016: 0.7—2020: 1.2; Wisconsin 2016: 0.7—2020: 0.7; and Michigan 2016: 0.2—2020: 2.8.
