Trump Could Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary, Poll Suggests

After one of the most chaotic years in our recent history – and especially the Capitol Hill tragedy on January 6th – you’d think that Donald Trump’s popularity has decreased among his supporters.

However, a previous poll released by the Politico-Morning Consult has revealed some truly surprising news. In short, if the 2024 Republican presidential primary elections were held right now, Donald Trump would win 100%.

The poll has been released only three days after the former president had been acquitted in his second impeachment trial.

Many Republicans, still into Trump…

A shocking 59% of the voters involved in the poll declared that they wish Trump would play a leading role in their Republican party.

This is 18 points up compared to the last similar poll, which was taken shortly after the Capitol Hill riot from January 6th. That was the moment when the Republican party started to divide, with many members who had previously supported Trump having a change of heart.

Two impeachment trials later, Donald Trump was still surprisingly popular, as the recent poll results reveal. None of his debatable, often discriminatory remarks and actions seemed to have mattered for a whopping 59% of Republicans who would continue supporting him in a future that’s not so distant.

On election day 2024, Donald Trump will be 78, while our current president Joe Biden will turn 82. Now that he has been acquitted from his second impeachment charges too, Trump can legally run again if he desires to; what’s concerning so many Americans is the dark thought that he might actually have a real chance of winning (again).

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…and many allies, drifting away

Although Donald Trump would stand a real chance at winning the 2024 elections, many of his former allies are desperately trying to clear their names, especially after the Capitol Hill riot.

Former vice president Mike Pence has also been a popular name noted by poll participants as he placed second in the Politico-Morning Consult poll with 12%. Although he’s been one of Trump’s fiercest allies throughout his presidential campaign and beyond, Pence seemed to have had enough when the former president asked him to overturn election results without any solid evidence.

He has drifted away from Trump even more after the January 6th riot, when he had to be secretly evacuated from the Capitol Hill to have his life saved.

Nikki Haley is another well-known name encountered in the poll results as she shared third place on name recognition with 6%. A former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor, Haley has also been closely linked to Trump – and now she finds herself desperately trying to break that association.

She declared many times that Donald Trump has truly disappointed both parties (but especially the Republican one) while admitting her mistake of supporting him throughout his four years of the presidency:
“We need to acknowledge he let us down. He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”
Having somebody in such a high function regretting what they’ve done in such an unprecedented situation puts us at ease a bit. What’s more, Haley also declared that Trump isn’t planning to ‘run for federal office again.’ Well, she should’ve known better because last year, during midterms, Trump announced that he would be re-running for presidency.

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Also, if we could even say that the Republican party is a contest at all up to this point, it might look like one between Donald Trump and a certain feeling one might call “Trump fatigue.” Also, Trump is easily winning the matchup. While MAGA ideas are widely spreading in the Republican electorate, it’s an environment that would heavily play to Trump’s advantage.

In fact, it seems that there’s an increasing demand for a candidate who acknowledges the fact that Trump won in 2020, who’s not afraid to challenge woke ideas, who doesn’t feel the need to criticize Trump, and who can make liberals angry. Trump is still the number one leader in all these areas. In the meantime, there are some Republicans who feel “exhausted” by everything Trump represents and that he’s way too controversial. However, they are greatly outnumbered.

It might be too soon to tell, but CBS News asked a couple of voters which candidates they would vote for in the upcoming Republican nomination. Side note: they were allowed to pick as many as they wanted. Then, they were asked to pick one candidate they would vote for today. Guess what: Donald Trump leads the poll on both measures. He has the majority vote support for the moment, but a massive amount of consideration extends beyond his current voters to those who say they want him back. Also, Trump won the votes of a higher percentage of those who would vote for him than anyone else.

In other words, Trump seems to have left the presidential office quite popular among his party. In fact, nothing changed, no matter what might have happened in the last couple of years. Regarding his recent legal concerns, a wide majority would say one rationale for supporting him is showing he cared during those fights. Also, his voters are probably the first ones to wait for the 2024 elections.

We can’t help but wonder what the smaller anti-Trump group says. People who won’t vote for Trump were also asked why not, besides their obvious liking, to which they all replied, “he’s too controversial.” Also, when they were asked how the former president makes them feel, they all answered: “exhausted.” Around a quarter of GOP voters don’t want to consider Trump a potential candidate at the moment, let alone vote for him.

However, it’s worth mentioning that these voters don’t have something against him personally. They were the ones who voted for him in 2020, and many of them believe he can’t lose to President Biden in 2024. In fact, most of them don’t even think there’s a mismatch of views, nor feel the need to criticize him.

Even so, his public combativeness might strike as a turn-off for many. Most of them can’t stand the way he chooses to deal with political opponents, and a much wider majority want to see him finding common ground with Democrats if he were to be elected again., rather than investigating and punishing them.

Another thing that’s worth mentioning is that there are huge educational gaps between non-Trump Republican voters and his supporters. White non-college voters seem to be 30 points more for Trump than college-degree holders.

republican presidential
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What about DeSantis? Could he win the Republican Presidential?

There’s an increasing overlap between DeSantis and Trump. It seems that four in 10 voters would consider both. However, when it comes down to vote choice, Trump wins the majority. An anti-woke stance could help DeSantis for the moment, but it’s still not enough on its own to fully overtake Donald Trump, as Trump has that covered as well. Trump managed to win voters who want someone with woke ideas.

If you’re interested to read more about the current President of the United States, here’s what we recommend: What Has Biden’s Democratic Party Done Until Now?

One Response

  1. He might win the primary but would be a sure loser again in the national election. We need some fresh blood in there in 24. Trump has too much baggage to even come close to winning.

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