Is Europe Ready for Armament Shopping?
If, before, Europe was scrambling to backstop Ukraine and bolster its own security before this past week, the Trump administration’s U-turn from Kyiv and toward Moscow rapidly sent European leaders into no less than a frenzy of rearmament.
As we all know, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky came to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump berated him like no other, sending plenty of shockwaves throughout the world.
Immediately after, President Trump decided to freeze all U.S. military assistance for Ukraine, offering Russia relief from painful economic sanctions, while also starting a new trade war with two of its neighbors, including a NATO ally, but also with China.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, unveiled a brand new five-point plan known as “ReArm Europe,” which would imply unlocking as much as 800 billion euros in the upcoming years to rebuild Europe’s arsenals, defense industry base, and security, which were all suddenly threatened not only from the east but also from the west.
“We are now in an era of rearmament.” von der Leyen said, previewing the upcoming EU meetings attempting to hash out the immediate European response to both Ukraine’s plight and its own. “This is Europe’s moment, and we need to live up to it,” she added.
In the same way that Russian President Vladimir Putin became the catalyst for NATO expansion, driving historical neutrals like Sweden and Finland to adhere to the alliance to his aggressive wars, Europe found no better unifier than Trump.
As Trump’s years of badgering EU countries to increase defense spending paid only fitful dividends, his sudden abdication of U.S. long-term promises, good faith, and security blankets had quite an impact.
Von der Leyen’s shocking proposal would automatically suspend EU fiscal rules to give its member states the capacity to ramp up their defense spending, allow for the use of EU cohesion funds (which were normally spent on highways and subways) for defense, and goose joint EU financing to rapidly enable cash-strapped European states to ramp up defense spending.
And just like that, both the north-south EU divides over frugal matters and an eight-decade sense of security that allowed the EU to skimp on defense spending while preaching soft power are gone in the blink of an eye.
Von der Leyen’s proposals came only two days after a huge European defense summit in London took place, where Britain and France, among many others, advocated for bigger defense spending. Both were meant to support Ukraine in the absence of American aid, as well as to patch up decades of under-investment in Europe’s own security.
However, the issue for Europe, and the explanation for prolonged efforts taken by leaders in France, Britain, Italy, and other states to calm down an increasingly erratic Trump, is that Europe still needs years to build its own defense capabilities and replace the potentially disappearing U.S. force from EU and NATO, which European leaders fear might happen before this summer.
That’s even a more threatening and acute concern for smaller countries like the Baltic states, which are exactly on the front line of any potential future Russian aggression, and which up to this day rely on U.S. troops and assets for security.
As Linas Kojala, the chief executive of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center in Vilnius, Lithuania, explained, “For us, it’s like jumping off a ship in the middle of the ocean.” However, von der Leyen highlighted the drastic change in European attitudes ever since Trump took office, especially since he boasted an initial get-tough approach to Russia, in his attempt to bully Ukraine into making disastrous concessions to Moscow.
As von der Leyen said, “The answer from European capitals has been as resounding as it is clear. EU is now ready to increase its defense spending, both to respond to the short-term urgency to act, as well as to support Ukraine, but also to address the long-term need to take more responsibility for its own security.”
As far as Ukraine is concerned, the sudden bereft of U.S. arms deliveries, including much-needed gear like air defense missiles, made Europe’s plans for rearming somehow reassuring (especially for investors in European defense firms), even if it’s still unclear how long it will take to ramp up production.
Since the start of the war, Europe has only over-promised and under-delivered items like artillery shells, leaving Ukraine at a battlefield disadvantage. As big European producers like Rheinmetall are building brand new factories, including in Ukraine, the new production won’t be available this year.
Von der Leyen also said that 150 billion euros in European loans would have to be earmarked for defense investment geared to Ukraine’s short-term needs, especially for air defense, artillery systems, as well as drones, and mobility.
She also added that the bloc, which so far provided more financial and military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war than the United States, “could really step up to support Ukraine.”
However, there’s another lingering question. Besides stepping up their arms production and deliveries, the question is whether Europe is able to field a ground force and act. And if so, will it be as peacekeepers or as deterrents in the event of a ceasefire?
Britain and France have both tackled the idea, envisioning a force of up to 30,000 troops to backstop Ukraine once the fighting stops. This idea, according to experts, is quite feasible, provided Europe’s brand-new willpower effectively matches its rhetoric, too.
A last indication of the sea change in European attitudes is leaders’ growing wish to tap into the 300 billion euros in frozen Russian assets. Ever since the start of the war, those reserves, which belong to the Russian Central Bank, have been frozen, but Europeans have been so far quite reluctant to seize them right away, obviously fearing reprisals from Moscow and an erosion of the eurozone’s financial appeal.
However, even once-cautious countries like Germany and Belgium are more and more comfortable with the idea of using Russia’s frozen reserves to inject tens of billions of euros into Ukraine assistance.
“Unlocking those assets is basically the only solution that would be rapid and impactful” Kojala believes. The ultimate decisions, he said, will show “whether Europe is truly serious, or only paying lip service” to Ukraine.
Takeaway
The strengthening of the EU’s defense capacities could ultimately lead to more autonomy in security matters. Even if NATO remains the main cornerstone of collective defense, European countries could also seek to add to NATO’s efforts with regional defense frameworks, especially in areas such as counterterrorism and border security, where EU cooperation is even more so efficient.
The rising defense budgets can also foster greater collaboration between EU countries, enabling joint military projects and shared defense technologies, bridging the capabilities gap between smaller states and larger powers.
The overall geopolitical shifts provoked by the most recent events could lead to significant ramifications for U.S.-EU relations, since European nations could assert more control over their own security, reshaping NATO’s strategic outlook, as well as its relationship with the United States.
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