Updated statements: Whether you’ve heard about it or not, former president Donald Trump didn’t miss the occasion to make another one of his crazy, far-fetched statements. This time, he blatantly threatened Israel, by saying that if he doesn’t win the election (meaning that if Israeli-American citizens don’t vote for him in the upcoming elections), the Israel state will cease to exist in a matter of years.
This statement comes as a surprise (although, by this point, nothing should surprise us anymore, not when it’s related to Trump), especially since he has been a vigorous supporter and protector of Israel. In fact, this spring, at a windy rally in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania, he had an hour-long address, sending prayers and support to Israel as it withstood Iran’s aerial assault.
The former president also mentioned that Israel is under attack, and only because they have shown great weakness. Trump, who often described himself as “the best friend Israel ever had”, completely blamed Tehran’s bombardment on Joe Biden, stating that it wouldn’t have happened if he had been president.
However, only a few moments later, he also agreed with his supporters when they started to chant “Genocide Joe,” a term that is mainly invoked by activists who protest against Biden’s abiding support for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, which killed over 34,000 Palestinians and pushed the territory to the brink of famine.
The former president also mentioned that the activists were not wrong, stepping away from the lectern and allowing them to chant. Up to this point, his campaign didn’t respond to a request for clarification on the comment.
Almost a year into the ruinous Middle East genocide, with increasing fears over a wider regional war, Trump unleashed a ton of criticism of Biden and his administration, but also of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, with few to no details as to what he would have done differently. Trump’s silence still leaves a series of questions about how he would act if he had inherited the conflict in January.
His campaign didn’t directly respond to a list of policy questions, whether or not he supports a ceasefire, how he would handle hostage negotiations, and whether there are any circumstances under which he’d consider conditioning aid to Israel and whether he really supports a two-state solution.
The latter one is an idea that his former advisers definitely reject. However, in his muddled commentary, many observers noticed a similar motivation that might have impacted his first-term foreign policy, of personal grievance and political opportunism.
In reality, he could benefit from all the increasing discontent over Biden’s management of the conflict, which might be the Democrat’s election bid, if Kamala Harris decides to follow his footsteps.
Trump vs. Netanyahu
Back when Trump was president, he was able to forge a close and mutually beneficial relationship with Netanyahu. However, his feelings for the prime minister rapidly soured after Netanyahu congratulated Biden on his 2020 election victory, which Trump famously claimed he won.
A few days after the deadly Hamas attack on 7 October, Trump severely criticized Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence for not being able to anticipate and stop the invasion. He referred to Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon that Israel has been continuously clashing with on its northern border, as “astoundingly smart.”
The former president’s rebuke of Netanyahu, as his country reeled from what he said was the deadliest days for Jews since the Holocaust. It drew a series of extremely sharp denunciations from fellow Republicans, including many of his challengers for the party’s presidential nomination.
After that, Trump rapidly retreated, stating on his social media platform that he stayed, in fact, with Netanyahu and Israel. A few hours later, he posted once again, this time stating in a video that he was the one who kept Israel safe, and nobody else will or can.
Ever since, as public perceptions of the genocide have been increasingly appalled by the ferocity of it all, Trump shocked some of his allies on the right by exhorting Israel to finish their war. “Israel needs to be careful because they are losing the world and the support.”
In a follow-up interview, he was asked once more by the conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt whether or not his comments had been misconstructed, to which Trump added that he advises Israel to get it over with the PR war. Biden expressed similar concerns, stating that Israel’s tactics in Gaza hurt its international standing. “Let’s get back to peace and stop killing people” the former president added.
Calling for peace, but little to no regard for Palestinians
Trump hasn’t outlined whether or not he believes that peace can be achieved or what he actually envisions for the region after the conflict ends. When he’s asked about it, he mostly repeats his claim that the war wouldn’t have happened in the first place if he was still in the Oval Office.
According to John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, Trump is simply delusional at this point. “It’s a point that nobody can really refute or confirm one way or another. He doesn’t have an actual idea as to what to do in the Middle East in this particular situation.”
Playing the role of the critic, rather than a prospective commander-in-chief, definitely worked for Trump before. Voters gave him far better remarks than Biden on his handling of foreign conflicts as President.
And since he decided to stick around on the sidelines, he is far better positioned to exploit the deep division in the Democratic coalition over Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war, one of the president’s biggest perceived vulnerabilities right before the election.
Trump’s pitch to Jewish voters
In a recent statement, Trump’s campaign accused President Biden and the Democrats of supporting Israel’s enemies and said leftwing criticism of Netanyahu’s government was pushing American Jews right into the former president’s camp.
Trump’s outreach to Jewish voters, out of which most of them support Democrats, faced plenty of accusations of antisemitism. This year, Trump told a series of reporters in Georgia that “any Jewish person that votes for a Democrat or votes for Biden should have their head examined.”
In a March interview with his former aide Sebastian Gorka, Trump also claimed that any Jewish American who backs the Democrats “hates their religion” and “everything about Israel.” The comments were fairly provocative, being condemned for invoking an antisemitic trope that Jewish citizens hold “dual loyalty” to both the United States and Israel.
Israel and a second Trump term
Trump has yet to come up with substantive details on how he actually envisions the role of the US in resolving the current conflict, and his campaign didn’t respond to the questions related to his postwar plans for Gaza or whether he supported a two-state solution.
However, the most recent comments from Trump’s former ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, reflect Netanyahu’s rightwing, nationalist vision for the region.
According to a series of analysts, if Trump returns to the White House next year, there will be little to no change in his approach. Moreover, many of them believe that his foreign policy will continue to be just as chaotic, transactional, and opportunistic.
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