Do you know what the swing states are for the 2024 presidential election?
Democratic or Republican? This is a great question, and for some states, this will remain a surprise until November. Every year, there are a few states known as swing states, and they are the decisive ones when we want to find out who the next president will be.
These states stretch nicely from the desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest, and then they follow the line down into the South. These states play a key role in the outcome of the election, and the main thing about them is that both parties have the same level of support.
Generally, the swing states are the same every election, but some factors, such as changing demographics, can make them switch. Both Trump and Biden are making a priority of the swing states, and their efforts are put into the campaigns that happen there.
So, what are the swing states of the 2024 election? Let’s find out!
#1 Georgia (Electoral Votes: 16)
For years, Republicans could count on the electoral votes of the Peach State without much effort. However, that’s no longer the case.
Republican politicians were winning big in statewide elections, but this came to an end when Stacey Abrams, a former Democratic leader in the state House, decided that Georgia had the potential to become more politically competitive, and she managed to create a voter turnout organization that was ready to take the votes of the Republicans. This is how Georgia became one of the swing states.
It was 2018 when Abrams was incredibly close, needing only 55,000 votes more to win the gubernatorial election. Two years later, Biden won Georgia by about 12,000 votes over Trump. And in 2021, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff won the runoff elections.
The Atlanta suburbs expanded incredibly fast in the last few years, and all of the black, Asian, and Latino residents made the Peach State more politically balanced. We need to mention that the results of the 2022 midterms showed us that Democrats still face challenges in these states.
Until November, Georgia will remain in the minds of every American.
#2 North Carolina (Electoral Votes: 16)
The Tar Heel State has always been one of the safe zones for Republicans, but not anymore. Since 1980, they have won all elections here, but recent analysis shows that this is now one of the swing states.
If we look at the recent elections since 2012, when Romney got 50.4% of the votes, there was no other candidate who won more than half of the votes. This means that North Carolina is a battleground for the 2024 presidential elections.
This year, the Biden campaign is putting in a lot of effort in the state of North Carolina because the results of the 2020 election were truly promising. However, the Republican Party is counting on Trump’s popularity in the rural areas of the state. If Trump manages to get these votes, it can make a real difference in the overall vote count. This might give him a big advantage.
#3 Arizona (Electoral Votes: 11)
This is another one of the states that supported the Republicans no matter what. From 1952 to 2016, this was the rule, except in 1996, when President Bill Clinton won the election by a small margin against Bob Dole, the former senator of Kansas.
However, as the population of Grand Canyon State has grown, the political orientation has shifted. In 2012, the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, won the state against then-President Barack Obama without any effort. But things changed drastically in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won against the GOP, and she managed to bring their victory margin to just under 4 points.
Later in 2020, Democrats had another win when Biden won the state with the help of the Latino population, with a lead of about 11,000 votes out of almost 3.4 million ballots. For the 2024 election, Democrats are hopeful, and they want Biden to have another win in one of the swing states where Republicans used to be dominant.
#4 Pennsylvania (Electoral Votes: 19)
Since President Biden is from Scranton and he holds this state close to his heart, Pennsylvania will be a key state for the Democrats during the 2024 election.
From 1992 to 2012, Pennsylvania won every election for the Democrats, but in 2016, things changed, and Trump won against Clinton with a very small difference. During that time, Trump was supported mostly by people from rural areas and working-class voters from the suburbs.
2022 was an amazing year for the Democrats of Pennsylvania, as Lt. Gov. John Fetterman became the new Senator after Republican Sen. Pat Toomey retired. The party also won back control of the state House of Representatives. They got back most of the seats they had lost during the 2010 midterms, making them the majority once again.
#5 Wisconsin (Electoral Votes: 10)
This state has always been split between Democrats and Republicans. Wisconsin has a history of Democrats winning. In 2000 and 2004, Al Gore and John Kerry won, and in 2008 and 2012, Obama won the state with no effort at all.
But things changed in 2016 when Trump, the Republican candidate, won in Wisconsin. This was the first time a Republican presidential candidate had won there since 1984.
The Democrats were surprised by the loss, but they got back on track in 2018 when Tony Evers won against Republican candidate Scott Walker. Biden then won Wisconsin by a small margin against Trump in 2020.
Right now, Wisconsin is a battleground, and both Democrats and Republicans are trying to get the most votes from their supporters. This makes Wisconsin one of the swing states, and we are all curious about how the election will go here.
#6 Michigan (Electoral Votes: 15)
This state is one of the biggest allies of the Democrats. From 1992 to 2012, they have won every election in Michigan, and this is why they still rely on it. Their biggest supporters are the middle- and upper-middle-class people who live in Detroit, following union households, and moderate voters in rural areas.
The biggest surprise for Democrats was in 2016, when Trump managed to win Michigan by a small margin, and most of the votes came from the white working class, the ones that have usually voted for the Democrats.
In 2020, the Democrats were determined to retake Michigan. Biden achieved this by winning by nearly three points over Trump. Even though the Democrats won, both parties really want Michigan’s 15 electoral votes in 2024.
But there is one problem for the Democrats. Many Arab Americans in the state are upset with Biden’s actions during the conflict in Gaza. This led to more than 100,000 people in Michigan not choosing a president during the March Democratic primary, and they voted “uncommitted.”
As you can see, swing states might decide the future of our country, and because of this, they should not be overlooked. Each swing state brings its own unique political landscape and shifting demographics, making them unpredictable and crucial in the race for the White House. Keep an eye on these states, and always remember that your voice matters in this high-stakes contest.
If you want to read more about this subject, this book might be helpful: America’s Election Handbook 2024: What to know for the 2024 Election
You should also read: 2024 Presidential Election Candidates: Here’s the Final List
